#1: 2025 Wrapped Down Under

From Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs shaking global markets, to Macquarie’s $11b play for Qube and a resources-led surge on the ASX, 2025 was anything but quiet. This edition breaks down the moments that moved markets, the deals that reshaped Australia’s corporate landscape, and the stocks that defined the year.

After returning to office in January 2025, Donald Trump didn’t waste any time moving markets both locally and globally. As Trump does, he announced via social media in March 2025 that the United States had been “ripped off and abused by every nation in the World, both friend and foe”. He declared his policy action as “Liberation Day”, a plan to “Make America Great Again” through reciprocal trade tariffs even on the United States’ largest trading partners. 

After slapping tariffs on over 180 countries, markets were volatile with most global markets falling significantly. Notably, global equity markets sold off across the US, Europe, Asia and even Australia following the announcement. 

In the short term, markets priced in slower trade, higher costs, and increased policy uncertainty. 

The introduction of 90-day tariff pauses later in the year helped calm markets and reduce immediate downside risks. As uncertainty faded, global equities recovered into year-end, finishing the year on a far stronger footing than where they stood following the initial announcement.

Who knows what Trump has in store for 2026? With the current tensions between the US and Venezuela - it will be interesting to see what the global markets are in for. 

A standout deal down under in 2025 was the $11.6b takeover proposal for Qube Holdings from Macquarie Asset Management. Macquarie offered Qube shareholders $5.20 per share in cash, roughly a 28% premium to the stock’s price prior to the bid, valuing the logistics and infrastructure operator at about $11.6b including debt.

Jamie Hannah, Deputy Head of Investments and Capital Markets at VanEck and a shareholder in Qube, said the offer was reasonable but that the group had not yet decided whether to accept it. He also highlighted the strong demand for quality infrastructure companies in public markets, noting that if Qube is taken private it would remove another scarce, high-quality asset from the ASX, further limiting choice for long-term investors and reinforcing how aggressively private capital is absorbing Australia’s best infrastructure names.

The announcement sent Qube shares to record highs, underlining strong demand for high-quality infrastructure assets and a broader consolidation theme in Australian markets. Qube’s board has granted Macquarie an exclusivity period to complete due diligence and is expected to recommend the offer in the absence of a superior bid, though regulatory approval and other conditions still need to be satisfied.

Based on the change in share price since January 1, 2025, the year's best performers on the ASX 200 include:

In contrast, the worst performers on the ASX 200:

With gold hitting record highs in 2025, it’s no surprise that the ASX’s top performers were dominated by gold miners. Names such as Regis Resources, Genesis Minerals, Evolution Mining and Newmont Corporation delivered outsized returns as investors sought safety amid uncertainty in traditionally defensive markets, particularly the US.

As rate expectations shifted and geopolitical risks persisted, investors increasingly turned to physical gold and gold equities to consolidate portfolios, rewarding producers with strong margins and balance sheets.

Not all stocks shared in the upside.

Star Entertainment Group emerged as one of the market’s weakest performers in 2025, down 42% for the year. Star’s decline reflected a toxic mix of regulatory scrutiny, operational disruption and balance-sheet stress, with ongoing licence uncertainty weighing heavily on investor confidence. The stock became a case study in how governance and regulatory risk can dominate fundamentals, particularly in highly leveraged consumer-facing businesses.

Likewise, Guzman y Gomez’s burritos were not the only thing that went cold this year, with its share price dropping 44%. After its IPO, the stock struggled as investors reassessed its valuation against a tougher consumer environment, highlighting the market’s growing caution toward high-growth retail stories without clear margin expansion.

Thanks for reading Capital Down Under - your guide to Global markets, Aussie deals, the ASX and more.

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