ASX snaps losing streak

The ASX 200 rose 0.2% this week, just enough to end a four-week losing streak, after the RBA lifted the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.60% on Tuesday, its fourth hike this year, citing higher energy prices from the widening Middle East conflict. The week swung hard, with a 2% sell-off on Thursday as US bond yields surged, before a 0.79% Friday rebound led by tech and energy as yields eased. Oil above US$102 a barrel is keeping inflation pressure in focus. 

This week’s best performers

Codan (ASX:CDA) +29.09%

First half profit guidance of at least $160m sent Codan, the radio communications and metal detector maker, up 29.09%. That is more than 125% above the $71.2m a year earlier, and one half alone is ~91% of its entire FY26 profit. The driver is demand for drone radio components, with ~50 manufacturers across the US and Europe buying and conflict zones a big part of the orders. At ~$12.3bn it has overtaken WiseTech as the ASX's biggest tech stock, but it now trades above the $66.77 average analyst target. 

Data#3 (ASX:DTL) +22.61%

Data#3, the IT services and software reseller, rose 22.61% after upgrading its first half FY27 guidance, hitting a new all-time high. It expects profit before tax of more than $46.9m, over 20% above the $39.1m analysts were forecasting. Part of the beat came from large client deals landing earlier than planned and some investment spending slipping into the second half. That reverses what analysts expected, since the second half now has to beat a higher base without those one-offs. Full detail comes at the AGM on 28 October. 

Megaport (ASX:MP1) +13.86%

Three AI-infrastructure contracts worth ~US$978.6m lifted Megaport, the network provider that connects businesses to cloud and data centres on demand, 13.86%. It also raised FY27 revenue guidance to $720m to $810m, up from $620m to $730m. Because the upgrade is tied to named contracts rather than hopes, the market bought it even with US 10-year yields at ~5.24%, a level that normally hurts growth stocks. The $90m spread in the new range is still wide, so how much lands in FY27 is the open question. 

This week’s worst performers

Liontown (ASX:LTR) -15.43%

Liontown, the lithium miner behind Western Australia's Kathleen Valley mine, fell 15.43% as lithium stocks kept getting sold, leaving it down 24.39% in September. It also approved a $389m expansion lifting processing capacity 50%, funded from its $561m cash balance without raising equity. The catch is that FY27 capex guidance jumped ~35% to as much as $495m, and the extra volumes have no buyers locked in yet. That means the payoff depends on lithium prices recovering, which is exactly what the market is doubting. 

Iperionx (ASX:IPX) -13.04%

There was no company news behind the 13.04% fall in IperionX, the US titanium developer that was one of our best performers two issues ago. The stock has lost more than half its value since June and sits near an 18-month low, with short positions (bets the price will fall) at a record. The RBA also lifted rates for the fourth time this year, which tends to hit pre-revenue developers that need to keep raising capital. Heavy shorting can also fuel a sharp rebound if the stock turns, though the chart shows no sign of that yet. 

Elevra Lithium (ASX:ELV) -12.94%

The lithium sell-off hitting Liontown dragged Elevra Lithium, the North American lithium producer, down 12.94% too. Its latest Ewoyaa update came late in the week and carried no real surprises. The ~US$71m sale of its Ghana project to Huayou is still waiting on Ghanaian government approval. If that isn't in by 30 October, Huayou can either complete the deal or walk away and pay a US$5m break fee. That is small next to the sale price, so a collapse would leave Elevra with the project and little compensation.