Barely in the Green, But Budget and Conflict Loom

The ASX 200 finished up 0.2% for the week after its largest fall in seven weeks on Friday, with the benchmark dropping 1.51%. Fresh trouble between the US and Iran wiped over $50bn in the market’s value and sent oil prices up. At home, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to increase the cash rate by 0.25% to 4.35% - its third rate hike this year to mitigate Australia’s rising inflation.

The week ahead could get messy.

The Iran War could spike volatility in the market at any point, and the highly anticipated Federal Budget will be delivered tomorrow night. The budget is set to bring in major tax reforms, with reports suggesting that the Labor government will make changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT), which will have major effects on housing, shares, and businesses. The anticipated, but unconfirmed, changes have already drawn significant debate across the media and industry.

This week’s best performers

Virgin Australia Holdings Limited (ASX:VGN) +16.67%

Virgin found some relief this week after being among the beaten-down stocks amid the Middle East conflict. As oil prices spiked earlier this year, so did jet fuel — Virgin’s highest cost — and markets quickly sold off VGN. Down over 27% for 2026 so far, investors are buying back in on hopes of a 2026 recovery, with its half-year results showing signs of demand recovery in domestic and short-haul international travel. 

Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX:CMM) +15.80%

The WA gold producer had a strong week after presenting their vision of a “high margin, long mine life gold business with compelling growth” at the 2026 Macquarie Conference which attracts over 800 institutional investors. Investors clearly liked it, with the stock rising over 15% for the week, aided by a strong week for gold, rising 2%. 

Develop Global Limited (ASX:DVP) +12.71%

The zinc-copper WA miner has seen significant interest in 2026, rising over 30%, riding the AI-driven demand wave for copper, a critical commodity for data centre infrastructure. Management is bullish on the company’s operations, holding a 20% stake, reflecting strong internal confidence and alignment with shareholders. 

This week’s worst performers

Tabcorp Holdings Limited (ASX:TAH) -35.19%

Tabcorp had a horror week after revealing it is being investigated by AUSTRAC, Australia’s anti-money-laundering agency, after failing to inform AUSTRAC of illegal betting activity and credit card fraud. Tabcorp could face a significant financial penalty if the investigation proceeds to legal action, with other financial institutions historically receiving hundreds of millions of dollars in fines. Former AFL boss and now CEO of Tabcorp, Gillon McLachlan announced the betting company would “work constructively with AUSTRAC through this process.”

4DMedical (ASX:4DX) -20.15%

4DX was having a great year, up 50% for 2026 at its peak in April after EU certification, allowing the lung imaging technology company to commence commercial operations in Europe. But ever since, the stock has fallen sharply — now down nearly 30% for the year. Investors are selling off, either taking profit after the stock’s near 1,000% rise over the past year or questioning whether the valuation can hold up against peers.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX:YAL) -13.28%

A tough week for coal, with prices and sector sentiment weakening, dragging Yancoal down with it. As one of the ASX's largest dedicated coal miners, it copped the brunt of the move. With no company-specific news, Yancoal’s fall reflected the market rotating away from the coal sector due to concerns around fossil fuel exposure.