Agenda
Global Markets - Behind Trump’s Venezuela move and its market impact
Deals Down Under - Sembcorp’s $6.5bn acquisition of Alinta Energy
ASX - Markets hit its highest since October, winners & losers
Other News - Australian Open, Aussie politics and more
Global Markets
Trump, Venezuela, and the Oil Shock That Markets Couldn't Ignore
Just two weeks into 2026, Donald Trump is already moving markets, this time through Venezuela.
On January 3rd, Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro was captured by US forces following months of sanctions, tanker seizures, and a naval blockade. While US officials cited narco-terrorism, markets focused on oil.
Venezuela holds 300bn barrels of proven oil reserves (around 17% of the global total), yet years of mismanagement under Maduro saw production collapse. As Western firms exited, China stepped in, with state-owned companies and refiners absorbing discounted Venezuelan crude, a dynamic the Trump administration labelled an “unacceptable strategic liability.”
The prospect of regime change triggered an immediate repricing: Venezuelan bonds jumped up to 20%, US energy stocks rallied, and gold and silver rose as geopolitical risk was reassessed.
Trump has since called on US energy companies to invest billions to revive Venezuela’s oil sector, though industry leaders remain cautious.
For Australian investors, it’s a reminder that global commodity shocks don’t stay local.
Read our full breakdown: #2: Trump, Venezuela, and the Oil Shock That Markets Couldn't Ignore
Deals Down Under
Sembcorp to Acquire Alinta Energy for $6.5bn
Source: Sembcorp Industries
On December 11, 2025, Sembcorp Industries agreed to acquire 100% of Alinta Energy from Chow Tai Fook Enterprises for an enterprise value of A$6.5bn, the largest Australian energy deal of the year.
The price has split the market. While sell-side analysts view the transaction as earnings accretive, CTFE had spent years seeking an exit, with prior suitors, including KKR, reportedly valuing Alinta closer to A$4–4.5bn. At roughly 6.6x earnings, Sembcorp is paying a premium to ASX peers such as AGL, raising questions over whether it has overpaid.
Sembcorp’s case is strategic. The deal provides immediate scale in Australia, adding 3.4GW of generation capacity (including the 1.2GW Loy Yang B coal plant) and a 10.4GW renewables and firming pipeline, supporting its ambition to reach 25GW of global renewables capacity by 2028. Coal cash flows from Loy Yang B are expected to fund the transition - albeit with ESG risk.
Sembcorp was advised by Goldman Sachs and DBS, while CTFE was advised by UBS and RBC Capital Markets. The deal is subject to FIRB and competition approval and is expected to complete in H1 2026.
Other Notable Deals:
Rio Tinto and Glencore reportedly reopened merger talks with the aim to create a $300b “mega-miner”, reshaping the global resources sector
Private Equity firm TPG and its recent acquisition of bus operator Kinetic, are among the final bidders for Dysons, a 74-year-old Australian business with over 600 buses and 12 depots
Advent Partners’ radiology platform, Imaging Associates has entered exclusivity to acquire a majority stake in Adelaide’s Radiology SA
ASX
Confidence Builds Early in 2026
In just the third week of 2026. the Australian Sharemarket reached its highest level since October, driven by strong momentum in bank stocks and a rally in the tech industry. Clearly, 2026 has brought some risk appetite for investors as the market builds confidence early in the year.
The week’s best performers on the ASX 200 include:
Catalyst Metals Limited (ASX:CYL) +24.48%
Light & Wonder (ASX:LNW)+ 16.70%
Stanmore Resources Ltd (ASX:SMR) +15.38%
After a strong year for gold miners in 2025 on the ASX, Catalyst Minerals Limited (ASX:CYL) backed it up announcing record high gold production in their most recent quarterly update leading to a 15% surge on Friday.
Alongside their announcement, the company shared that only 2 and half years ago its Plutonic mine site was “near bankrupt, producing from only one mine”. Today, Catalyst is targeting production across four mines on the Plutonic Gold Belt. A sharp turnaround story, and one to watch.
In contrast, the worst performers on the ASX 200:
Mesoblast Limited (ASX:MSB) -14.01%
Zip Co Ltd (ASX:ZIP) -13.38%
GQG Partners (ASX:GQG) -9.09%
Mesoblast Limited’s 14% drop in the past week isn’t as bad as it looks. After rallying two weeks ago, including a 10% jump to a 52-week high, Mesoblast’s fall on the Sharemarket seems to be related to investors profit-taking. Despite this fall, analysts and experts are fairly optimistic on a Mesoblast bounce back in the medium term.
Other News
The Australian Open has kicked off in Melbourne, with a staggering 80 sponsors competing for visibility. Alongside long-standing partners like Kia, ANZ, Rolex and Emirates, this year features new collaborations including American burger chain Shake Shack and property giant REA Group.
Albanese and the Labor Party had hit a setback in the new ‘hate speech’ bill, with the Greens joining the coalition in opposing the original legislation, raising questions about whether the bill can pass in its current form.
Adelaide’s Writers Week was cancelled earlier this week after organisers removed Australian-Palestinian author Randa Abdel-Fattah from the program, triggering backlash and reigniting debate around free speech and cultural institutions.
Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on European countries until the US is allowed to purchase Greenland, sparking debates within NATO over Trump’s strategic and economic motivations.
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