Issue #11 | Markets Rebound, But Energy Costs Rise

ASX - ASX This Week, Top 3 Winners & Losers
Deals Down Under - AI Infrastructure Leads IPO Comeback
Global Markets - Fuel Shock Hits Australia, EV Demand Surges
Other News - Extra Finance, Aussie Politics, Sport and Culture

The ASX 200 finally closed the week in the green, its first positive week since February 28, when the war began. Up 1% by Friday’s close, investor sentiment improved on expectations of a potential peace deal in the Middle East after a month of conflict.  However, don’t get too comfortable though, with further volatility expected as the US and Iran attempt to reach a deal.

This week’s best performers

4D Medical (ASX:4DX): +46.05% - 4D Medical develops software that converts standard X-rays or CT scans into ‘four-dimensional’, real-time imaging. The company received certification to immediately commence commercial operations with healthcare providers across the European Union, opening the door to one of the world’s largest and most sophisticated healthcare markets.

PLS Group & Liontown (ASX:PLS, ASX:LTR): +21.75% & +21.31% - Lithium is back. Two of the ASX’s largest lithium miners had massive weeks, with both stocks riding a broader sector resurgence. UBS analysts have predicted that Lithium prices have potential to climb further as Middle East supply disruptions drive demand for EVs and battery storage.

This week's worst performers

Electro Optic Systems Holdings Limited (ASX:EOS): -14.55% - Only two weeks ago EOS surged 18.47% after landing a $US45m defence order from a Middle East buyer, but investors this week took profits. JP Morgan also chose its moment to exit, ceasing to be a substantial holder and offloading its >5% stake in the process.

NextDC (ASX:NXT): -11.04% - Late last year, Australia’s largest data centre operator had been riding the AI infrastructure wave. but the tide has turned. With this week’s huge sell-off, NXT is in the red on a 12-month basis. With ongoing losses and an escalating capital expenditure bill, investors took the chance to exit.

Predictive Discovery Limited (ASX:PDI): -10.90% - A recent addition on the index following March’s quarterly rebalance, PDI had a poor debut. Gold’s poor month weighed on investor sentiment, in addition to two high-profile exits with Bank of America and Citi Group ceasing to be substantial holders which added further selling pressure.

Firmus Technologies is back in the spotlight, with its highly anticipated June 2026 IPO on the ASX approaching. The Australian AI infrastructure company builds, owns, and operates data centres or “Data Factories” leasing long-term contracted capacity to hyperscale’s and enterprise clients, positioning Australia as a global base for AI infrastructure. 

Backed by AI-Giant NVIDIA and Blackstone, the world’s largest asset manager, Firmus is hoping to raise between $1bn-$3bn from its IPO. This would make it one of the largest ASX listings in years, arriving after a dry past couple of years for new significant listings. Raising capital hasn’t been difficult, with Firmus’ equity valued at $6bn late last year following two funding rounds totalling $830m, suggesting investors are willing to pay a premium for AI-driven infrastructure compared to traditional data centre operators such as NextDC (ASX:NXT).

Australia has a strong appeal to global AI infrastructure with abundant land, access to renewable energy and proximity to Asia’s fast-growing data demand. It’s no surprise to see NVIDIA and Blackstone supporting the project, with their involvement signalling strong conviction in the Aussie company.

Listing on the ASX isn’t so simple - a key reason for the drought of IPO’s in recent years. Companies must satisfy financial and corporate governance requirements. For Firmus, one requirement has attracted attention throughout the media.

The ASX requires “evidence of the good fame and character of the current or proposed directors”. The ASX will need to carefully review this since Co-Founder, Oliver Curtis was jailed for two years in 2016 after being found guilty of insider trading and profiting $1.4m off illegal trades. However, Curtis is expected to meet the ASX’s requirement on this policy, clearing the path for the IPO to proceed.

Firmus’ IPO is more than just another listing; it will be an early test of whether domestic capital is ready to back Australia’s role in the global AI infrastructure race.

Global oil markets are tightening as the Middle East conflict disrupts key supply routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude briefly surged above US$114 per barrel, as attacks on infrastructure and shipping continue to constrain flows and drive-up costs. 

Australia is now feeling those impacts in real time. Despite avoiding a full-scale supply collapse, the country’s fuel security has been exposed, with reserves sitting at just ~30 days for diesel and jet fuel. Shortages are emerging at the retail level, particularly in regional areas, with 55 Queensland stations out of diesel, and hundreds across NSW and Victoria running out of at least one fuel type. In response, the federal government is stepping in aggressively, introducing powers to underwrite fuel imports using taxpayer funds, allowing agencies like Export Finance Australia to guarantee, insure, and finance emergency cargoes on the spot market. Demand-side measures are also emerging, including fuel caps and public transport incentives aimed at easing pressure.

At the same time, the shock is accelerating a structural shift. Surging petrol prices and supply uncertainty are driving a sharp rise in electric vehicle adoption globally and in Australia. New data shows used EV sales more than doubling, while resale values for recent models have jumped significantly. Financing demand is also spiking, with NAB reporting a 100% increase in EV loans since early March. What began as a supply shock is now reshaping consumer behaviour, pulling forward the transition away from fuel dependence.

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