Issue #12 | Markets Rise, But Oil Pressures Build at Home

ASX - ASX This Week, Top 3 Winners & Losers
Deals Down Under - Anthropic & Albanese Government Sign Deal
Global Markets - Uncertainty Remains, Australia’s Response to Oil Shock
Other News - Extra Finance, Aussie Politics, Sport and Culture

The ASX 200 closed 0.7% higher, a second consecutive week in the green amid Donald Trump’s shifting comments on the Middle East conflict, on Wednesday evening. Despite an increase, uncertainty is set to persist, with investors lacking clarity on when the conflict will resolve.

Gold Sector +6.79% - After falling ~8% - its worst monthly decline since 2008, gold rebounded strong this week, driving gains across ASX-listed gold miners, as reflected in this week’s top performers.

While gold is viewed as a defensive asset, its recent decline highlights its sensitivity to interest rates. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making cash and bonds relatively more attractive.

This week’s rebound appears driven by growing expectations of US interest rate cuts late this year, which lower yields and makes gold more attractive.

The week’s best performers 

Greatland Resources Limited (ASX:GGP) +31.66% - Greatland surged after delivering a significant upgrade to its resources, with its 12-month drilling campaign exceeding initial estimates by 150%, from 4.8 million ounces of gold to 8.0 million.

Predictive Discovery Limited (ASX:PDI) +20.14% - Predictive Discovery rallied alongside the broader gold sector, with further support from its proposed merger with Robex Resources, a West African gold producer. Described as a “merger of equals”, its rise reflects the market's ongoing assessment of the strategic merits of the merger, signalling long-term production potential.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:LTR) +18.11% - After a poor few months amidst the global gold sell-off, Northern Star rebounded following quarterly production of 381,000 ounces and a $500m share buyback announcement. Share buybacks at this scale typically signal management confidence that the stock is undervalued.

This week's worst performers

PEXA Group Limited (ASX:PXA) -21.85% - PEXA, a digital property technology company that operates electronic lodgement and settlement network, was the worst performer on the ASX200 this week following a “double-edged” regulatory outcome. The NSW Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal proposed capping the fees PEXA can charge for property settlement using a cost-based framework, raising concerns around future earnings.  

4D Medical Ltd. (ASX:4DX) -10.19% - After being last week’s top performer rising over 46%, 4D Medical, a medical technology company declined as investors moved to take a profit.

Reece Limited (ASX:PDI) -7.65% - Reece declined this week amid ongoing concerns around housing and construction activity, in Reece’s key markets: Australia and the US. With higher interest rates which limits renovation demand and building approvals, investors remain cautious on future growth. The slight drop in price appears to be a result of structural issues rather than company-specific news.

AI giant Anthropic has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Albanese government, backing Australia’s push to become a regional AI and data centre hub. While non-binding, the deal signals early commitment from one of the world’s leading AI firms, with plans to invest in renewable-powered infrastructure and support local research through a $3 million AI Science Program.

At the core of the deal is a policy-for-investment trade-off. The government wants AI infrastructure built domestically, powered by “firmed renewables,” and aligned with Australian regulation. In return, Anthropic gains early positioning in a politically stable, resource-rich market increasingly attractive for data centre expansion.

Copyright was notably absent from the agreement, despite being one of the most contentious issues in global AI development. Australian media groups are pushing for compensation models as AI firms train models on copyrighted content, and the government is under growing pressure to respond.

Anthropic has signalled it is open to commercial arrangements, but no framework has been agreed. This creates a key uncertainty: Australia wants to attract AI investment, but also protect domestic content creators. 

This deal shows Australia is serious about competing for AI capital, but copyright could become the key bottleneck. How the government resolves data usage and compensation will likely determine whether global AI firms scale investment locally or look elsewhere.

Global markets remained volatile this week as uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East persists. Trading on Thursday morning was turbulent following Donald Trump’s national address on Wednesday night, raising expectations of a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the volatility, US markets rebounded, with the S&P 500 rising 3.4% for the week - its first positive week since the war began on February 28. 

Trump has since double downed on his proposed deal with Iran, delivering a direct ultimatum via his platform Truth Social:

While markets responded positively, investors should remain cautious. Trump’s aggressive and optimistic stance highlights how quickly sentiment can shift, with markets reacting to political issues as opposed to underlying fundamentals. Key pressures including higher interest rates, persistent inflation and climbing oil prices still remain firmly in play.

Australia Feels the Pressure

In Australia, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese delivered a rare national address, warning that the three months ahead “may not be easy”. Fuel supply issues quickly became a focal point, with Australians urged to not “take more than you need” amid signs of panic buying.

Current Fuel Reserves (as of April 4) (see more here:)

To ease the cost-of-living pressure, the government announced:

However, while easing short-term prices at the pump, these measures do nothing to address the underlying supply constraint. If the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, Australia will experience a prolonged period of increased fuel prices.

Key industries across the economy will be affected:

Higher fuel prices are likely to fuel inflationary pressures, reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the near term.

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