Issue #14 | Inflation, IPO and Iran

ASX - ASX This Week, Top Winners & Losers
Deals Down Under - Canva Delays IPO for AI
Global Markets - Hormuz Closed, Oil Swings
Other News - Extra Finance, Aussie Politics, Sport and Culture

The ASX is back in the red, falling 0.2% for the week after three consecutive weeks of gains. As usual, markets were focused on the uncertainty around the Middle East, with the US-Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz proving difficult to pin down. Back home, Goldman Sachs analysts are predicting two further rate hikes this year to combat inflation, recession risk now sitting at a 25% chance of occurring in the next 12 months.

This week’s best performers

Sunrise Energy Metals Limited (ASX:SRL) +26.63%

Despite being the best performer on the ASX 200 this week, the critical mineral developer had no firm-specific news to drive its stock price - yet its share price has risen over 2,500% over the past year. The company's appeal lies in its scandium deposit in central-west NSW - a largely unknown critical mineral with major potential in aerospace, defence and 5G infrastructure. Already backed by US defence manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, Sunrise Energy Metals is definitely one to watch.

Zip Co Ltd. (ASX:ZIP) +26.29%

Zip had an impressive week after delivering record quarterly earnings with cash earnings of $65.1m - up 41.5% compared to last year's Q3 earnings report. US revenue jumped 43.3% compared to Q3 2025, proving the importance of accessing the North American market. The buy now, pay later stock is still down 30% for 2026, but results like this make a recovery look increasingly plausible.

WiseTech Global Ltd. (ASX:WTC) +22.72%

WiseTech investors enjoyed a sharp price rebound after a disappointing 2026 so far with the stock down over 30% for the year, mainly driven by the broader Australian tech/software sell-off. WiseTech appears to be benefitting from improved risk sentiment across the market as global tensions show signs of easing.

This week’s worst performers

4DMedical Ltd. (ASX:4DX) -14.12%

Again. 4DMedical makes the losers list for the fourth week in a row. After receiving certification to commence operations with healthcare providers in the EU, the medical technology company has surged over 40% in the past month. This week's selloff looks like investors taking a profit off those gains. With the stock still up enormously over the past year (over 2000%!) and now expanding into Europe, it remains one to watch.

Downer EDI Limited (ASX:DOW) -10.48%

One of Australia's largest infrastructure services companies had a tough week and was ultimately dragged down by macro pressures. With 90% of their work government-related, Downer is heavily exposed to any pullback in public spending, as rising interest and recession fears could put pressure on government budgets.

Reece Limited (ASX:REH) -10.43%

Reece fell sharply this week as growing fears around interest rates dampened investor sentiment towards housing and construction-linked stocks. Closely tied to residential building and renovation activity in Australia and the US, investors are remaining cautious - especially after Goldman Sachs doubled its recession probability estimate. 

Australia’s most valuable startup is “fully IPO ready”, but what’s stopping them from going public? AI. 

Canva COO and co-founder Cliff Obrecht confirmed this week that the Perth-founded design giant is pushing its long-awaited stock market listing back to 2027. By delaying its IPO, Canva is set to complete what he describes as the most consequential transformation in the company’s thirteen-year history. 

This week, in front of 6,000 people at its annual product launch in Los Angeles, Canva unveiled AI 2.0. Where Canva has until now been a design platform with AI tools added on top, Canva 2.0 aims to "reimagine how the world creates” by introducing a conversational system, where users can brief, build and publish without operating the tools. 

Canva’s AI transformation hasn’t come out of nowhere. Behind Canva 2.0 is an acquisition spree that has been quietly reshaping the company for two years. Since 2024, Canva has acquired 8 AI-focused companies, spending more than $400 million to assemble the capabilities it needed to pull off its reinvention. The most recent additions - Simtheory and Ortto were announced just days before the Los Angeles event. 

Canva’s IPO will be massive. Behind the AI announcement and a decade of reshaping the graphic design industry are some impressive numbers. Canva now has more than 265 million monthly active users and over 31 million paying subscribers. Revenue hit $5.6 billion last year, and the company has been profitable for nine consecutive years. 

For investors, the delay of its listing is another test of patience. But looking at the acquisition trail, the product transformation and its numbers - it’s hard to argue with Canva’s logic. While ready, Canva is going to arrive and list on its own terms and when it does, there is little doubt investors will be waiting.

Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone late last week, pointing to “very good conversations” with Iran as Tehran signalled the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. However, that ‘progress’ quickly unravelled.

Over the weekend, Iran reasserted control over the strait and shut it again, blaming the US naval blockade of its ports. Iranian gunboats reportedly fired on two vessels, an Indian-flagged tanker and a cargo ship, transiting through the strait, with at least one forced to turn back. 

The reversal highlights how fragile negotiations remain. While both sides continue to signal progress, major gaps persist, particularly around Iran’s nuclear program and control of the waterway. Iran’s negotiator said there was “progress” but still a “big distance” to a deal, while Donald Trump warned the US would not tolerate “blackmail.” With the ceasefire set to expire mid-week and no formal agreement signed, the risk of renewed escalation is rising.

Markets reacted quickly to the shifting outlook. Oil prices plunged more than 10% on Friday, with Brent Crude falling from around US$98 to ~US$86 after Iran declared the strait would be “completely open,” boosting hopes of a ceasefire extension. That move is now expected to reverse following the renewed closure, with supply fears back in focus.

Geopolitically, pressure is building on US allies. Donald Trump continues to criticise countries including Australia for not doing more to secure the strait.

Canberra has taken a more cautious stance. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said around 50 fuel tankers are en route to Australia to bolster supply, after a week spent securing additional fuel and fertiliser imports. “We want to see those ships pass,” he said, emphasising that freedom of navigation is essential for global trade, while confirming Australia is prepared to assist if required and planning for a more prolonged disruption.

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