Issue 15 | The ASX Under Pressure — From Healthcare, Canada, and a Closed Strait

ASX - This Week’s Movers
Deals Down Under - Canada vs the ASX
Global Markets - Record Highs on NYSE
Other News - Extra Finance, Aussie Politics, Sport and Culture

Despite renewed hopes of the Middle East conflict ending, the ASX 200 fell 1.79% for the week - its fourth consecutive day of losses on Friday. The damage was led by a horror week in healthcare, with Cochlear Limited suffering one of its worst sessions on record. Tech added to the fall mid-week after Microsoft and Meta announced job cuts globally after their enormous AI spending commitments, though the sector largely recovered by the week’s end. While the ASX dropped, markets across the world including the US and Japan posted gains and even record highs.

This week’s best performers

Elevra Lithium Limited (ASX:ELV) +15.99%

After a positive March quarterly update, the global lithium producer and developer reported $81m revenue - a new quarterly revenue record with sales up 23% on the prior quarter. Its cash position also grew from $81m to $113m since January, reflecting a strong balance sheet. With lithium demand surging on the back of EV growth and grid-scale energy storage, investors took notice.

Regis Healthcare Ltd. (ASX:REG) +15.45% 

Minister of Health Mark Butler announced earlier in the week that the government will invest $3bn in delivering more beds, home care packages and better care for older Australians in the upcoming Federal Budget in May - leading to a rally in the aged care industry. For Regis, one of Australia's largest aged care providers, the timing couldn't be better. The $3bn injection will directly address its struggling operating margins and investors think so too, sending Regis up 15% in a single session.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited (ASX:TWE) +12.22% 

Australia's largest wine company announced a restructure of its operating model, shifting to four regional divisions - the Americas; Australia, New Zealand and Europe; China; and Emerging Markets. The move is designed to give each region more autonomy and faster decision-making, a structure better suited to TWE's increasingly global footprint. Along with the restructure, they managed to secure funding of $300m which will provide financial flexibility during the transition.

This week’s worst performers

Cochlear Limited (ASX:COH) -42.21%

Hitting a 10-year low, Cochlear’s trading update was the worst selloff on record for the company, with its FY26 profit targets dropping by ~30%. In the US, Cochlear's largest growth market, consumer sentiment has hit historic lows, and hearing loss treatment continues to be viewed as a discretionary intervention rather than a clinical priority - meaning it's one of the first things people cut when finances tighten. Middle East orders have also dried up amid the conflict. So, when the US and the Middle East stalls, its 42% drop is no surprise.

IGO Limited (ASX:IGO) -24.22%

IGO's quarterly update disappointed on almost every front. Production and sales volumes at its flagship Greenbushes operation in WA missed expectations significantly, with guidance subsequently cut. Safety incidents added further concern. The irony is that the lithium market is the strongest it’s been in years, meaning IGO’s problems are not commodity-related rather they’re about execution. CEO Peter Bradford remains optimistic, but investors weren't willing to wait.

4DMedical Ltd. (ASX:4DX) -18.49%

Despite another sell-off, there's a touch of irony in the fact that 4DMedical's news this week was actually positive. They were officially added to the S&P/ASX 200 index - which will bring more attention from passive funds, along with signing a one-year contract with GlaxoSmithKline to provide their lung imaging technology for clinical trials. Its official inclusion on the index tends to skew short-term investor sentiment with passive funds buying ahead of the official data and once it officially arrives, those same investors take profits. The underlying technology continues to gain genuine clinical traction globally, so for long-term watchers of 4DX, this week's dip says more about the index mechanics than the business itself.

Canadian exchange operator TMX Group has agreed to acquire Cboe Australia and Cboe Canada from Cboe Global Markets for $409 million AUD, marking a significant cross-border push into Australia’s capital markets. The deal brings together two mid-tier exchange platforms that generated roughly $89 million AUD in revenue in 2025 and positions TMX as a direct challenger to ASX Limited.

At its core, TMX runs stock exchanges, the infrastructure that allows companies to list their shares and investors to trade them. Its flagship is the Toronto Stock Exchange, Canada’s equivalent of the ASX. Cboe operates similar platforms globally, but with a stronger focus on derivatives and trading technology. In Australia, Cboe already acts as a smaller rival to the ASX, handling around 20% of equity trading. TMX is effectively buying a competing version of the ASX, including the technology, licences, and market relationships needed to run an exchange, giving it an immediate foothold in Australia.

The strategic rationale is clear. Australia and Canada share structurally similar markets: both are resource-heavy economies with strong mining and energy pipelines, and both rely heavily on equity markets to fund growth. By combining these platforms, TMX is building a cross-border listings and trading ecosystem, particularly attractive for resource companies seeking dual listings or deeper pools of capital. 

For Cboe, the sale reflects a broader strategic shift. The firm is exiting smaller equities markets to focus on higher-growth areas like derivatives, data, and digital assets. For Australia, the timing is critical. Cboe Australia only recently received regulatory approval to list companies, opening the door to long-awaited competition in IPOs, an area historically dominated by the ASX. Backed by TMX, that competition could now become far more credible.

The deal remains subject to regulatory approvals, with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) expected to fast-track its assessment given Cboe’s role in maintaining competition in local markets.

The implications are meaningful: more competition could drive lower fees, better technology, and greater choice for issuers and investors. More broadly, TMX’s entry signals growing global interest in Australia’s capital markets, particularly as demand rises for commodities critical to the energy transition.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs gaining 0.6% and 1.5% respectively, after Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran and amid an AI/tech rally. For a nation currently at war, the market, by the numbers, looks remarkably calm. But zoom out, and the picture changes completely. 

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz - which currently is blocked by both Iran and the US, was deemed as the “greatest threat to global energy security” by the International Energy Agency”. Through the conflict, Brent Crude Oil peaked at $120/barrel - the highest since the start of the Ukraine/Russia conflict where it briefly hit $130 per barrel. Since the Strait is responsible for 20% of the global flow of oil, it collapsed energy markets around the world. 

The countries actually feeling it 

While the US celebrates their record-closing equity markets, the rest of the world, in particular emerging markets in Asia are feeling it. The Philippines, which sources 90% of its oil from the Middle East, declared a state of national emergency in late March, with reserves of diesel down to just 46 days. Pakistan imports 99% of their liquid natural gas (LNG) from the UAE and 40% of its energy from the Middle East. 

While clearly highly susceptible to a global energy crisis, there was almost no way to predict this conflict. These nations have had to seek drastic measures including closing universities, schools and Sri Lanka even declared every Wednesday a public holiday to conserve fuel.  

So why are US markets unfazed?

Well, it’s not the first time there has been serious volatility within Trump’s second term with last year’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs testing markets. Investors are treating Trump’s management of the conflict like his tariff negotiations, where he increases the uncertainty and then lowers it on cue. Analysts from Deutsche Bank drew parallels to early 2022, when optimism about a quick end to the Ukraine War was followed by a significant decline in the stock market.  

The US produces most of its own oil, so while Americans are still seeing higher prices at the pump, the shock is more moderate than in import dependent economies and crucially supply itself was never threatened the way it was for countries dependent on the Middle East for 90% of their energy.

Impact on Australia

Locally, unleaded 91 petrol has dropped close to pre-war levels, averaging 192.7c per litre nationally. But diesel remains nearly 50% higher than what it was, which matters more than petrol for most Australians, even if they don’t realise it. Diesel prices are essential for transportation and most supply chains along with heavy machinery used in the farming and mining industries. Australia's fuel reserves have actually improved, rising from 36 to 46 days' worth, but with the strait still largely closed, the buffer remains thin.

The US market represents only a fraction of the total global equity landscape. The ceasefire has brought optimism for investors on Wall Street but without ships moving through the Strait again, the rest of the world, including Australia are running out of time.

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