Issue 16 | The Streak, the Raise and the Exit

ASX - This Week’s Movers
Deals - Australia's Quiet AI Raise
Global Markets - UAE Quits OPEC
Other News - Extra Finance, Aussie Politics, Sport and Culture

The ASX 200 fell 0.6% for the week, its third consecutive weekly loss. Woolworths led the damage this week after quietly downgrading its earnings outlook amidst cost pressures. Friday brought some relief to the benchmark, rising 0.7%, snapping an eight-day losing streak - the longest since 2018. Like last week, while the ASX has been declining, the S&P500 and the NASDAQ over in the US continued to set record highs.

This week’s best performers

Codan Limited (ASX:CDA) +21.58%

This week’s trading update revealed Codan’s full-year EBIT is expected to hit $235m and NPAT of around $170m, growing 60% compared to the last financial year. For the technology company, its surge in financials comes from its communications divisions and Minelab metal detector business, which are both running ahead of initial FY26 forecasts. Defence demand for its software-defined radios is the underlying story here; geopolitical tension is terrible for the world, but it's been very good for Codan's order book.

Liontown Limited (ASX:LTR) +17.86%

Liontown shares rallied towards a multi-year high on the back of its strongest financial quarter since production began at its Kathleen Valley lithium mine, and the market noticed. Liontown posted $197m in revenue for the March quarter, growing 51%, driven by an 87% surge in the price it received per tonne of lithium concentrate shipped to customers. The update also marks Liontown’s first quarter where its operating cash flow fully funds its business, another attractive headline for investors this week.

Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN) +12.35%

MinRes delivered a quarterly update that gave investors plenty to cheer about, with the diversified miner upgrading its volume guidance across four of its five divisions. The average price received across its lithium mines surged 92% compared to last quarter, riding the same lithium wave as Liontown. However, investors should be on the lookout for its next quarterly update, with their diesel prices doubling since March due to the Middle East conflict, which may weigh on costs ahead.

This week’s worst performers

Resolute Mining Limited (ASX:RSG) -15.66%

Resolute, the African gold miner, was unlucky this week after its operations in Mali came under scrutiny following Al-Qaeda-linked attacks in the capital Bamako. Resolute swiftly reassured investors that their Syama operation, located in southern Mali, was continuing without interruption - but the damage was already done with shares dropping 10% on Tuesday. After a solid quarterly update last week where operating cash flow recorded US$119.8m, it's some bad luck for the gold miner.

Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX:WGX) -11.70%

Gold miners didn't have a great week, with Westgold leading the fall, as gold prices declined nearly 5% through April. Despite a positive start to the year on the back of its impressive half-year results, Thursday’s ~9% drop erased its 2026 efforts, highlighting how quickly sentiment can change in the resources sector.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX:WOW) -9.87%

Despite a positive quarterly update from the numbers, with sales up 4.5% from the prior year and its Australian Food and eCommerce divisions rising too, its future outlook was downgraded by management - enough to send the stock falling nearly 10%. Increased costs mainly from fuel pressure flowing through from the Middle East, combined with market growth slowing in their New Zealand division, as management faulted the market being highly competitive.

While everyone was watching Firmus Technologies’ heavily publicised roadshow last week, another Australian AI company has been quietly raising money on the side - $210m to be exact. Future Secure, founded by a former Macquarie investment banker and an ex-McKinsey consultant, sells automated co-workers, each with their own name and face, to create an AI avatar used in banks, law firms, and private equity funds - scary I know. The business is pushing towards a US$1bn IPO in 2027. 

With Firmus Technologies, Canva, and now Future Secure set to go public in the next couple of years, it's clear that Australia’s AI capabilities are growing - and investment from big US tech companies support this:

There’s clear demand for Australia, for its political stability, renewable energy, and proximity to Asian markets. 

However, Australia’s AI landscape is minuscule compared to the US. As the ABC’s Alan Kohler pointed out, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta collectively generated profits of $151bn last quarter alone - more than every single company on the ASX combined. Those four companies are also worth over $10 trillion USD, over four times the entire ASX. But we’re not racing against the US. While Australia plays a supporting role in the global AI economy, its relationship with these US tech giants may be more valuable than most people realise. Australia isn't leading the AI race. But it's closer to the track than the narrative suggests.

The United Arab Emirates has delivered a major shock to global energy markets, confirming it will exit OPEC on May 1, ending nearly six decades of membership and signalling a shift toward independent oil production. Founded in 1960, OPEC brings together major producers including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait to coordinate output and stabilise global oil prices. By setting production quotas, the group has historically exerted cartel-like control over supply, accounting for roughly one-third of global production and around half of exports.

The motivation of the exit is clear: to maximise output and regain control. The UAE has invested heavily to lift production capacity toward 5 million barrels per day, but OPEC caps have limited output closer to ~3.4 million. Leaving OPEC allows the UAE to produce and sell at full capacity, maximising revenue and market share. At the same time, tensions with Saudi Arabia, over quotas, regional influence, and diverging geopolitical priorities, have made remaining in a Saudi-led system less attractive.

The move weakens Saudi Arabia’s dominance within OPEC and has been quietly welcomed by the US, which benefits from lower oil prices and a diminished cartel. Analysts have also flagged it as a potential “thin end of the wedge,” with other members now more likely to question compliance if quotas no longer maximise their own interests. 

For the UAE, this is a clear win: higher production, greater autonomy, and stronger positioning in a competitive global market. For the remaining OPEC members, it’s a loss of control; fewer tools to manage supply, weaker cohesion, and a higher risk of internal fragmentation or future exits. For global markets, it points to increased supply over time and downward pressure on prices, particularly once geopolitical disruptions ease.

This is a shift away from cartel-driven pricing toward a more competitive oil market. OPEC’s influence is weakening, Saudi leadership is being challenged, and producers are increasingly prioritising national strategy over collective discipline.

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