Issue #23 | A Week of Playing It Safe

ASX - Top 3 Winners & Losers
Deals Down Under - Everlab’s $500m Raise
Global Markets - US-Iran Peace Deal
Other News - Aussie Politics, Sport and Culture

The ASX 200 fell 0.9% on Friday but held on to finish the week up 0.3%, supported by a rotation into defensive stocks as investors grew cautious on riskier sectors. CSL led the charge, posting its best day since February 2022 as money flowed into healthcare. Gold slipped to $US4,137 an ounce after the Federal Reserve signalled it's leaning toward keeping rates higher for longer, a sign that investors are pricing in less urgency for safe-haven assets. Oil ticked up slightly after talks between the US and Iran scheduled for this weekend were called off, though the market barely reacted either way.

This week’s best performers

Sunrise Energy Metals Limited (ASX:SRL) +28.33%

Sunrise Energy Metals surged this week after committing a US$5 million equity investment in Agni Semiconductor, tied to its Syerston scandium project and the broader push into battery metals as part of the global energy transition. The market's reaction has been enthusiastic, but the fundamentals are still trailing. Sunrise trades at a price-to-book ratio of 57.1x, well above the Australian metals and mining industry average of 1.9x, despite reporting a loss of $7.29 million and just $133,000 in revenue over the past year. Investors are clearly betting on the future of Sunrise's scandium, nickel and cobalt exposure rather than what it currently earns, and after a rally this strong, the gap between its share price and fundamentals is one to watch. 

This week’s worst performers

Beach Energy Limited (ASX:BPT) -10.23%

Beach Energy fell this week after cutting its interim dividend by 67%, tied to heavy spending on its Waitsia Gas Project. A dividend cut is generally read as a warning sign, since companies usually only reduce payouts when cash is tight or a major project is eating into funds that would otherwise go to shareholders. The stock is now sitting near a five-year low, with the 1-year total shareholder return down 19.3%, suggesting that investors have been losing confidence for a while now, not just this week.

Marc Hermann was 13 when his father, fit and seemingly healthy, collapsed and died of a sudden heart attack in his mid-40s. That moment shaped the rest of his career, and this week it helped land Everlab one of the largest medtech raises in Australian history.

The Melbourne-based preventive healthcare startup closed a $65 million round at a valuation approaching $500 million, led by AirTree Ventures with participation from London's Plural, existing backer Left Lane Capital, and a notable investor in Australian cricket captain Pat Cummins. It's the country's biggest medtech raise since Heidi Health's $98 million effort last October.

Everlab's model is straightforward: full-body MRI scans, blood testing and AI-driven analysis to catch disease in patients before symptoms appear, built on the idea that most serious health scares come with warning signs hiding in the data, if anyone bothers to look. The company has processed more than 21 million biomarker results across 20,000 patients and flagged 114 urgent, life-saving findings last year alone.

What makes this raise interesting isn't just the size, it's that Everlab didn't go looking for it. Hermann says the company had barely touched its previous funding round when investor interest intensified on its own, the kind of inbound demand that tends to produce better terms than a scramble for cash. The money will go toward AI infrastructure and an expansion into the UK, where Hermann sees an NHS under strain pushing patients toward private alternatives, much like he believes Australia's own healthcare system is trending.

One thing the raise won't lead to anytime soon is an IPO. Hermann ruled out taking the company public for now, saying it still has "a way to go" before it's ready for public markets. For a sector that's struggled to produce venture-scale wins, Everlab's growth and its founder's personal stake in solving the problem make it one of the more interesting Australian growth stories of the year.

After three months of war that shut down one of the world's most critical shipping lanes, the US and Iran have a deal, on paper at least.

The two countries signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding last week, declaring an immediate end to military operations and committing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the channel that carries roughly a fifth of the world's traded oil and gas. Under the terms, the US will lift its naval blockade in phases over 30 days, while Iran clears mines and restores shipping traffic to pre-war levels. The two sides now have 60 days to negotiate the harder issues including: sanctions relief, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and what happens to Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium.

That timeline barely survived its first formal meeting. JD Vance travelled to Switzerland this week for the first talks under the new agreement, only for Trump to threaten to "hit Iran very hard again" over ongoing fighting in Lebanon, a country that isn't even a party to the deal. The Iranian delegation walked out shortly after. Iran had already announced it was re-closing the Strait of Hormuz days earlier, citing the US's failure to secure a ceasefire in Lebanon, and shipping data backed that up: only a single oil tanker crossed the strait with its tracker on, compared to dozens per day before the announcement.

The markets had started pricing in peace, which could be premature. Brent crude had fallen sharply since the deal was first announced, easing pressure on global inflation and giving central banks (including the RBA) more room to move on interest rates. Gold had pulled back from its wartime highs as fears of a wider conflict faded. Australian households had even started feeling it at the petrol pump, with fuel prices dropping as much as 90 cents a litre from their peak.

All of that now sits on shakier ground. Lebanon was always the loose thread in this deal, since neither Israel nor Hezbollah signed it, and this week showed how quickly that thread can unravel the rest. Iran says nuclear talks can't even begin until Lebanon settles down and it sees the economic benefits it was promised. Trump's threats suggest Washington's patience for that condition is thin. The 60-day clock is still running. Whether anyone gets back to the table before it runs out is anyone's guess.

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