Issue #25 | Closing Out FY26

ASX - FY26’s Top 3 Winners & Losers
Deals Down Under - Coles $4bn Move 
Global Markets - OpenAI’s 5% Stake
Other News - Aussie Politics, Sport and Culture

The ASX 200 rose 0.9 per cent for the week, as weaker-than-expected US jobs data pushed investors to scale back bets on the Fed raising rates again. 

Zooming out, the ASX 200 rose 2.77 per cent over the full financial year, or 7 per cent including dividends, after touching a record high in February before easing back by June 30. Materials was by far the strongest sector, surging more than 47 per cent on the back of gold and critical minerals. Healthcare was the worst, falling 37 per cent as CSL and Cochlear both had brutal years. But the real story of FY26 was at the stock level, where a handful of names moved by triple digits in either direction. 

FY26’s best performers

4DMedical (ASX:NEU) +1787.50%

4DMedical develops software that converts standard X-rays or CT scans into ‘four-dimensional’, real-time imaging, without the need for more invasive nuclear medicine scans. The stock's run kicked off after FDA clearance for its CT:VQ platform in September 2025, followed by a string of deployments at Mayo Clinic, Stanford and Cleveland Clinic. A $150 million capital raise in January funded the US rollout and left the company with about $200 million in cash. Most of the gain came in the first half of the year, and the stock has since pulled back sharply as investors wait for revenue to catch up to the valuation. 

Minerals 260 (ASX:MI6) +508.30%

Minerals 260 is a Western Australian gold explorer that's ridden both a rising gold price and a run of strong drilling results at its Bullabulling project. High-grade assays reignited attention on the site's resource upside, while a partnership with royalty giant Franco-Nevada added institutional credibility. The company remains pre-revenue and has leaned on shareholder dilution to fund exploration, so the next test is whether it can convert drilling momentum into actual gold production, rather than just operating on sentiment. 

Electro Optic Systems (ASX:EOS) +277.30%

EOS makes laser-based counter-drone systems and remote weapon stations, and 2026 was the year global defence spending finally showed up in its order book. The company's Slinger counter-drone system and 100kW laser weapons landed export orders across the Middle East, Europe and South Korea, while its acquisition of UK counter-drone specialist MARSS lifted the combined order book to around $726 million. EOS just made the list as they were rebalanced into the ASX 200 in the second last week of June 2026. The next milestone for EOS is converting its backlog into consistent revenue as contracts roll out through FY27.

FY26’s worst performers

WiseTech Global (ASX:WTC) -70.20%

WiseTech had a brutal year on multiple fronts. The logistics software company issued cautious FY26 guidance, took a margin hit integrating its e2open acquisition, and then founder Richard White was recently hit with federal police allegations involving a former employee, sending the stock down sharply in a single session. Its core product, CargoWise remains deeply embedded in global freight and customs software, but with its recent governance troubles, the stock carries a discount on top of its software risk moving forward. 

Tuas (ASX:TUA) -60.20%

Tuas, the Singapore telco chaired by former TPG Telecom boss David Teoh, was cruising on strong subscriber growth until its planned $1.43 billion buyout of rival M1 fell apart. Singapore's regulator suspended its review of the deal after learning Tuas' Simba business may have used mobile spectrum it wasn't licensed for, a compliance breach serious enough to blow up the transaction entirely. The stock lost more than 60 per cent in a single session, one of the largest single-day falls in ASX history, and remains under investigation. 

Cochlear (ASX:COH) -59.60%

Cochlear, the global leader in hearing implants, delivered its worst earnings downgrade on record in April, slashing FY26 profit guidance by roughly 30 per cent. Management pointed to softer implant demand in the US and Europe, hospital capacity constraints, Middle East delivery risk and a stronger Australian dollar eating into offshore earnings. The long-term thesis around an ageing population and rising hearing loss awareness remains, but investors are now demanding proof that FY26 was a temporary dip rather than a structural reset.

Coles is in advanced talks to buy Greencross, the pets and vets business founded by former Shark Tank Australia investor Dr Glen Richards, in a deal that would value the company at around $4 billion. Greencross owns Petbarn and City Farmers retail chains along with more than 140 vet clinics and 24 animal hospitals across Australia and New Zealand. It's a deal eight years in the making, and one that's already been down several other roads first.

TPG took Greencross private for $675 million in 2018, before selling 45 per cent of it to AustralianSuper and the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan in 2022 at a valuation north of $3.5 billion. As recently as January, TPG's bankers were prepping a $700 million-plus IPO that would have returned Greencross to the ASX after an eight-year absence, with earnings having grown to around $400 million. That IPO never happened. A $3.75 billion trade sale to pharmaceutical distributor EBOS also collapsed in 2023 after investors got cold feet on the funding. This time, TPG looks to be taking the trade sale route again, this deal has been quietly in the works for almost a year.

For Coles, it's a second crack at pet care after quietly shutting down its own Swaggle venture in March, and it would put Australia's two largest supermarkets head to head in the category. Woolworths already owns 55 per cent of Petstock.

The catch is regulatory. The ACCC just blocked a new Coles store from opening in Kalgoorlie, and Coles is still waiting to learn how much it'll be fined after losing a Federal Court case over misleading discount claims. Coles' shares fell about 5 per cent on the news. None of that stops this deal, but it does mean Coles has to convince both shareholders and a watchdog that's clearly paying close attention that this one's worth pursuing.

OpenAI is reportedly in early talks to hand the US government a 5 per cent equity stake, an idea Sam Altman has floated as a way to share AI's economic upside with the public rather than let it sit entirely with shareholders. The plan, still conceptual, would channel that stake into a fund modelled on Alaska's, which invests oil revenue and pays dividends from a pool worth close to $91 billion. Altman wants other major US AI labs, including Anthropic, Google and Meta, to do the same, though none have confirmed they're on board.

The timing isn't a coincidence. Washington has been leaning harder on AI companies lately, and giving up equity looks like an attempt to get ahead of that pressure rather than wait to be regulated into it. It's not without precedent either. The US government took a 10 per cent stake in Intel last year, and Trump has since called the idea of the public becoming "a partner with the companies" interesting. There's a competing idea too. Senator Bernie Sanders wants a similar fund, just financed by a one-time 50 per cent tax on the biggest AI companies rather than a voluntary handover. Altman has spoken to both the administration and Sanders, so he's clearly trying to shape whichever version wins out. Any real deal would still need an act of Congress, so this stays far from certain.

What makes it worth watching is what a government stake actually buys beyond dividends. Equity usually comes with a seat at the table, and a government holding 5 per cent of a company as influential as OpenAI raises real questions about how much say Washington would expect over the technology itself, not just its profits.

For Australia, the read-through is less about direct exposure and more about precedent. Super funds already carry exposure to US tech through global equities, and OpenAI and Anthropic are both reportedly prepping listings that could value them above $1 trillion. If sovereign ownership of AI becomes normal in the US, it's fair to wonder whether Australia's own Future Fund ends up chasing a similar seat down the line.

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