Issue #30 | Capital in Motion

ASX - Top 3 Winners & Losers
Deals Down Under - Glencore Listing
Global Markets - Yen Rescue
Other News - Aussie Politics, Sport and Culture

The S&P/ASX 200 climbed 3.5% this week, closing out a run of record highs on Wednesday and Thursday as investors looked ahead to a heavy week of company results starting Monday. Renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions also crept back into focus, with Iran threatening to bar US and Israeli ships under a proposed deal with Qatar, pushing Brent crude above US$83 a barrel and weighing on major US benchmarks. Energy was the standout local sector, up 0.6%, while healthcare and financials lagged as banks braced for earnings that will show how loan volumes are holding up. 

This week’s best performers

Minerals 260 (ASX:MI6) +28.81%

The gold explorer climbed after laying out the next phase of work at its Bullabulling Gold Project, split across resource growth, regional exploration and production readiness. The standout was at the Endeavour prospect, where historical drilling has returned intercepts as high as 29 grams per tonne of gold over a metre, backing plans for first-pass drilling along the corridor linking it to the Kraken deposit. The company has also wrapped a 26,000-metre grade control program at its Phoenix deposit, feeding straight into mine planning as it edges closer to production.

DroneShield (ASX:DRO) +28.61%

Last week’s biggest ASX 200 faller is this week’s biggest winner. DroneShield closed July at $1.70, its weakest level in 12 months, after guiding to $250-270 million in FY26 revenue against consensus near $323 million. The bounce back wasn’t triggered by new news, buyers instead reassessed what they already had: committed revenue of $206 million with five months left in the year, and EU production capacity that’s becoming a prerequisite for European defence contracts. Brokers are split, and half-year results on 26 August will settle the debate.

Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX:NEU) +26.22%

Neuren rallied after US partner Acadia posted second-quarter DAYBUE sales of US$125 million, up 30% year on year, prompting Acadia to lift its full-year guidance and Neuren to raise its own royalty forecast to US$53-56 million. Around 40% of DAYBUE patients have now switched to the newer STIX powder formulation, with nearly half of that uptake coming from new or returning patients. A European approval decision, expected soon, would also trigger a US$35 million milestone payment. The stock remains almost entirely dependent on one drug and one partner.

This week’s worst performers

Viva Energy (ASX:VEA) -7.02%

The fuel refiner and retailer dropped as a sharp fall in crude oil prices raised concerns about refining margins and the value of its fuel. Viva sits at a key point in Australia’s fuel supply chain, running the Geelong refinery alongside a large network of fuel and convenience retail sites, leaving it directly exposed when oil prices move. The collapse in crude rippled through the rest of the energy sector too, forcing investors to reassess the outlook for refining margins and fuel earnings more broadly.

Beach Energy (ASX:BPT) -4.95%

Beach Energy fell despite swinging back to profit, FY26 net income of $281.4 million reversed last year’s $43.8 million loss, backed by $890 million of operating cash flow. The dividend was the problem, cut to just 2 cents a share after an earlier 67% interim cut, with the cash instead going toward the Waitsia gas project. Waitsia has only just reached its target production rate of 250 terajoules of gas a day, and a statutory shutdown is already flagged for the year ahead.

Karoon Energy (ASX:KAR) -4.89%

The oil and gas producer fell as crude prices dropped sharply, with Brent slipping to around US$76 a barrel and below US$80. As a pure-play oil producer, Karoon’s share price is tightly geared to crude, so the slide flowed almost straight through to the stock. It wasn’t alone either, the entire energy sector fell 1.93% that day, with larger peers like Woodside, Santos and Beach Energy also caught in the sell-off.

Glencore is aiming to secure a secondary listing on the ASX as early as October, chief executive Gary Nagle confirmed on the company's earnings call this week. The Swiss headquartered miner is currently listed on the London Stock Exchange and the Johannesburg exchange. A secondary listing means Glencore's existing shares would also trade on the ASX, without issuing new stock or raising capital.

The listing is designed to unlock demand that's currently structurally restricted. Nagle said major Australian pension funds have told Glencore directly that they would invest more in the company if there were a local line to buy, something many super fund mandates prevent while the stock is only listed offshore. Glencore is targeting Australia's $4.4 trillion pension pool, which it expects to grow to around $12.4 trillion by 2045. Tribeca's Ben Cleary has separately argued that Glencore's Australian tax position could unlock fully franked dividends, given the scale of tax it already pays locally.

The announcement follows strong first half results. Underlying earnings rose 86 per cent to $10.11 billion on revenue up 49 per cent to $174.4 billion, and the company lifted 2026 shareholder returns to roughly $3.5 billion.

For the ASX, the listing cements its position as the world's leading mining exchange, following a run of local takeovers that thinned out pure play copper options. For Glencore, it's an attempt to close the valuation gap it has long argued exists in London, where AustralianSuper's Luke Smith says the listing should help the share price move closer to intrinsic value.

The US Treasury and Japan's Ministry of Finance carried out their first coordinated currency market intervention since June 1998, after the yen fell to its weakest level in decades against the US dollar. The slide largely reflects a wide gap between US and Japanese interest rates, which encourages investors to borrow cheaply in yen and invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere, a strategy known as the carry trade, compounded by Japan's debt load, above 200% of GDP, and rising oil import costs tied to the Iran war.

Japan reportedly spent around ¥8.45 trillion ($52.8 billion) in a single day, likely the largest one-day intervention on record, pulling the yen from around 164 to about 155 per US dollar. The New York Fed directly sold euros to buy yen on behalf of the US Treasury. That choice of euros over dollars surprised markets, with Brookings Institution fellow Robin Brooks arguing it made the operation look less coordinated.

Asked why the US joined in, President Donald Trump told reporters, "Japan's always been very good to us, with the exception, of course, of Pearl Harbour." Beneath the quip is a more practical motive. Japan is the largest foreign holder of US government debt, and had it acted alone, it may have needed to sell part of that holding to fund the buying, pushing up US borrowing costs.

For Australians, the flow-on effect runs through bond markets rather than the yen itself. Higher US Treasury yields tend to weigh on share valuations globally, which matters for retirement savings held in super funds. Analysts also flag risk to South Korea and Taiwan, both central to the chip supply chains behind the AI boom. The recovery may not last, these interventions typically fade without a genuine rate rise, and the Bank of Japan is expected to hike as soon as September.

Thanks for reading Capital Down Under till the end! If you enjoyed this week's issue, feel free to forward it to a friend – we'd really appreciate it.

Also, if you had any thoughts, tips or ideas for next week, just hit reply.