A week after Firmus Technologies pulled its IPO, the next big ASX listing is already taking shape, and it’s a familiar name. Nearmap, the aerial imaging software business, left the ASX in 2022 as a $1.06bn company when private equity firm Thoma Bravo bought it at $2.10 a share. Now Thoma Bravo has reportedly hired Goldman Sachs and Barrenjoey to prepare an IPO targeting more than US$4bn ($5.75bn), over five times that exit value. That would make it the biggest deal in the pipeline, bar Glencore’s ASX debut, which doesn’t raise any new money.
The business has changed a lot since. Nearmap was expecting US$350m of revenue for FY26 and is said to have profit margins as high as 50%. Under Thoma Bravo it has shifted from a niche aerial data provider to a property intelligence platform, competing with established players like Cotality and Verisk. Two acquisitions pushed it into insurance, with Betterview helping spot property risks and sharpen underwriting, and Itel supplying building material pricing and repair-versus-replace analysis.
The tension is the price. US$4bn values Nearmap at more than 11 times its annual revenue, and Firmus just showed what happens when investors don’t buy the story. Its forecasts leaned on data centres not yet built, more than half its shares were free to be sold as soon as it listed, and the big US investors never bid at the size the banks promised. Nearmap has real revenue and margins on its side, but it will need to limit early backers selling out, avoid late surprises and show the demand is there before it sets a price. It also has a record to answer for, as Estia Health is the latest business that struggled on the ASX but looked better in private equity’s hands. Nearmap’s numbers are strong, but after Firmus, buyers will want proof they justify US$4bn before they put money in.
