On Friday, SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq in the biggest IPO in history, raising $75 billion from investors before a single share traded publicly. The stock opened at $US150, well above its $US135 offer price, and briefly hit $US176.50 before closing at $US160.95, putting SpaceX's market value at around $US2.1 trillion and making it the sixth-largest company in the US. Elon Musk, whose 42% stake is now worth over $750 billion, became the world's first trillionaire in the process.
The numbers are extraordinary. The valuation is harder to justify on fundamentals alone. SpaceX lost more than $9 billion across 2025 and early 2026, trades at a price-to-revenue ratio of roughly 112, and Morningstar put fair value at around $US780 billion, less than half the listing price. CFRA opened coverage with a sell rating. The bull case isn't about what SpaceX earns today — it's about whether Starlink, satellite infrastructure, AI and rockets can compound into something that dwarfs the current valuation over a decade.
For Australian investors, the exposure is more direct than it might seem. SpaceX has been fast-tracked for inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, meaning any superannuation fund with passive US exposure will soon hold SpaceX shares whether they chose to or not. CommSec also gave local retail investors direct access through the IPO, making this the first time everyday Australians could buy into a listing of this scale from their brokerage account.
The broader market impact is already being felt. Planet Labs fell 9% and EchoStar dropped 11% on Friday as funds rotated into SpaceX at the expense of smaller space and satellite names. The question now is whether the stock holds its price. With a small proportion of shares on the open market, an unprofitable business and a valuation built almost entirely on future optionality, early volatility is near certain. Whether it ends up being the railroads of the 21st century or the most expensive hype trade in history depends entirely on how much of Musk's vision actually gets built.
