Issue #31 | Paying to Play

ASX - Top 3 Winners & Losers
Deals Down Under - EQT’s Double Play
Global Markets - Trump’s Truth Social 
Other News - Aussie Politics, Sport and Culture

The S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.7% this week as heavyweight sell-offs dragged the market lower into the thick of August earnings season. The move came despite the RBA holding the cash rate at 4.35% on Tuesday, with governor Michele Bullock warning another hike remains "quite possible" if inflation doesn't keep cooling. It also came against a positive lead from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 hit a fresh record high on a benign US inflation report, a reminder that local earnings, not offshore sentiment, are driving the market right now.

This week’s best performers

Cleanaway Waste Management (ASX:CWY) +13.87%

Australia's largest waste manager jumped after disclosing a conditional takeover proposal from EQT Infrastructure at $3.13 a share, valuing its equity at about $9.4 billion, well above an earlier unsolicited $3.00 approach from an unnamed rival. It's the standard playbook for a takeover target, with bidders offering a premium to win shareholder support, so the stock jumps toward the offer price the moment a deal is disclosed. Both proposals remain non-binding and conditional on due diligence and shareholder approval, so nothing is locked in yet. 

Austal (ASX:ASB) +13.54%

The Australian shipbuilder rocketed 17% in a single session after revealing a non-binding offer from Hanwha Defence USA to acquire Austal USA for US$1.05 to 1.2 billion, leaving its core Australian operations untouched. The company also flagged an expected FY26 group EBIT loss of around $113 million on non-cash provisions at the US business. Austal's board will now weigh up any firm offer that emerges, with the strategic logic clear given Austal USA's foothold in the US naval industrial base. 

Helia (ASX:HLI) +11.79%

The lenders mortgage insurance specialist rallied after surprising the market with a combined ordinary and special dividend alongside an ongoing share buyback program, a signal it's sitting on more capital than it currently needs. The catch is the payout lands against softer underlying earnings and structural pressure on new mortgage insurance demand, as government deposit schemes and lenders' own self-insurance options chip away at Helia's addressable market. It's a good payday now, but the real question is whether Helia can keep selling enough new policies to fund the next one.

This week’s worst performers

Arena REIT (ASX:ARF) -29.88%

The childcare and healthcare property trust (REIT) tumbled after major tenant Edge Early Learning missed its August rent payment and requested deferrals as part of a corporate restructure, with Edge accounting for 14% of Arena's rental income. Arena has delayed its FY26 results while it works through the fallout. Surprisingly, Jarden still rates the stock a buy, arguing even a worst case where Edge pays nothing in FY27 would still value Arena at $2.60 a share, well above where it's currently trading at $2.30 a share. 

4DMedical (ASX:4DX) -13.74%

The medical imaging company slipped further after a fresh batch of shares from exercised options hit the market, adding to the total share count and reviving dilution worries.  The stock is now down almost 50% since its April high, extending a pullback despite a year that had earlier seen it surge 670% on growing US commercial momentum. FY26 results land August 27, the next real test of whether that commercial story is translating into numbers that justify a re-rate. 

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (ASX:HDN) -10.47%

The convenience retail trust fell despite posting yearly funds from operations, the cash a REIT actually generates from its properties, of $187.1 million and keeping payouts to unitholders steady at $0.086 a unit. The catch is the unit price is trading well below $1.56, the estimated value of the trust's underlying properties per unit, meaning the market is pricing it below what its assets are technically worth. 

Swedish private equity giant EQT is closing in on a deal to buy a controlling stake in the Melbourne Storm, a move that would make the NRL club one of only a handful in the league under private ownership. The deal, not yet signed, would value the Storm above $200 million, with EQT taking the vast majority of the business while existing owners roll some of their equity into the new structure. The club had been looking for a cashed-up investor to bankroll a couple of capital-intensive projects, a redevelopment of its headquarters next to AAMI Park and a new athlete development facility, and EQT looks to be that investor.

It fits a pattern for EQT, which has been building out a sports and education portfolio that includes Fitness Passport, the ATP Tour and IMG Academy, the Florida-based athlete development institution it bought for $1.77 billion two years ago. The pitch leans heavily on the NRL's new $5.3 billion broadcast deal, which is expected to flow straight through to the club's bottom line.

It's been a big week for EQT in Australia more broadly. The same firm has also tabled a $9.4 billion takeover bid for Cleanaway Waste Management, offering a 32.1% premium and securing a nine-week exclusivity period with the board's in-principle backing, a deal that still has to clear the ACCC and FIRB before it's close to final. Two deals, two completely different assets, but the same buyer behind both. Worth watching what the Swedish private equity giant does next. 

President Donald Trump is being sued in New York by The Intercept and the Freedom of the Press Foundation, which allege that selling early access to his Truth Social posts is corrupt and unconstitutional. The suit targets Truth API, a subscription product launched on August 1 by Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social.

Subscribers pay up to $US100,000 a month, or $US60,000 a month on a three-year commitment, for faster access to posts from Trump's account and nine other senior officials, including Vice President JD Vance. More than 10 customers have signed up, reportedly including high-frequency trading firms, since Trump's posts have a track record of moving markets. Oil prices fell sharply in April after Trump posted that he was calling off a planned strike on Iran, and his announcements on tariffs have similarly swung share prices.

The plaintiffs argue the arrangement breaches the First Amendment right to equal access to the president's public statements, since Trump remains Truth Media's largest shareholder with a stake worth about $US1 billion. Trump Media has dismissed the lawsuit as an attempt by "left wing activists" to censor the president, pointing out that other platforms also sell subscription data feeds.

The case adds to scrutiny of how businesses tied to Trump and his family have grown during his second term. Forbes estimated his personal wealth had climbed to about $US6.5 billion this year, up from $US2.3 billion in 2024, even as Trump Media itself reported a $US238 million net loss for the June quarter.

For Australian investors, the case is a reminder of how much weight a single social media post from the US president now carries over global asset prices, from oil to equities, and how access to that information, however it is regulated, can shape trading outcomes well before local markets open.

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